The Rise of the Doubt Economy

If you’ve ever scrolled past a business coach promising “certainty in uncertain times” or a web celeb claiming to have “the one strategy that still works in 2025,” you might want to pause before clicking “buy” or even “follow.”

Because here’s the thing: the grift is changing.

As journalist Scott Carney put it, “We have arrived at the era of peak grift, where liars, cheaters, and charlatans will have an ever harder time selling their wares to unsuspecting audiences. And this is not good news.”

He’s right.

Because when the grift starts to fail, the scammers don’t disappear. They evolve.

Welcome to The Doubt Economy.

Welcome back to Duped everyone! It’s getting wild out there so it’s high time Duped came back to give you the low-down on what’s happening in online business. Because it’s changing fast out there.

And today, we’re diving into what happens when audiences finally stop believing the hype — and what happens next when the grifters panic.

We’ll talk about why audiences have grown more skeptical, why that’s driving scammers to become more aggressive, and what you can do to protect yourself when celebrity entrepreneurs are selling certainty in a world that feels anything but certain.

Because as much as we wish this story ended with “and then the grifters went away,” it doesn’t.

As Carney warns, “What happens after the collapse of the grifter economy is going to be so much worse than you could ever imagine.”

Why is the collapse happening? To really understand it we need to go back in time and explore the idea of market sophistication.

The Five Stages of Market Sophistication

Back in 1966, copywriter Eugene Schwartz coined the term market sophistication — the idea that every market goes through stages of awareness.

When something is brand new, almost any promise sells. The goal is to announce your arrival online. “Make money in your sleep” or “Start your business from the beach.”

As more people hear about these businesses, business owners have to focus more on differentiation. They need to say and do something different so their business can continue to grow.

Then, as people hear more of those promises and experience more disappointment, they get smarter. They know the tropes. They’ve seen the tactics. They start asking questions.

Eventually, they become skeptical — not because they’re negative, but because they’ve seen the pattern enough times to recognize it.

That’s where we are now.

Audiences have watched too many “six-figure coaches” disappear, too many “authentic influencers” pivot after being caught lying, and too many “revolutionary frameworks” quietly rebranded when they failed to deliver.

Combine that cynicism with economic uncertainty, and you’ve got the perfect storm.

A hyper-aware, hyper-cautious audience living in what we call The Doubt Economy — a marketplace defined by hesitation, scrutiny, and deep mistrust.

So here’s our definition:

The Doubt Economy is what happens when a highly sophisticated market collides with high uncertainty.

It’s not just that people are tired of marketing.
It’s that they’re tired of being lied to in a world that already feels unstable.

When the economy is good, web celebs can get away with half-truths and screenshot testimonials.

But when everything feels shaky—politically, economically, globally—people crave stability. They stop taking risks. They stop trusting anyone who overpromises.

Honestly, this feels like good news, and in just a bit we’ll talk about why it might not be, but first…

Why the Grifters Need a Good Economy

Journalist Scott Carney makes an argument in his video, The Griftoverse is Collapsing, that’s as chilling as it is clarifying: “The one resource that all grifters share is a fundamental baseline of truth. Or, if you prefer, reality. Grifters monetize lies by subverting truth.”

That line gets to the heart of why the grifter economy is cracking.

Grifters need a good economy to thrive — a world where people feel safe enough to take risks, spend money, and believe that the system basically works.

When there’s trust in institutions, optimism in the air, and a stable dollar, people are more likely to believe the next “blueprint to financial freedom.”

But when that foundation crumbles — when trust in government, science, and media collapses — the grifters lose their playground.

Carney explains: “For grifters to succeed, they need a stable base… which means a good economy, generally positive health outcomes, and enduring institutions that earn the trust of the people.”

Without that, the entire scam economy becomes unstable.

So what do the scammers do?

They pivot. They find new angles. And they get more aggressive.

How the Web Celebs are Adjusting in the Doubt Economy

They’re not abandoning the grift — they’re just adapting it to a new, more skeptical audience.

What we are currently seeing::

It’s “ethical” to do this
Ongoing “soft business” rebranding
Countless faux humble pivots and descaling talk
Debating the value of coaching (and coaches are pushing back)
All the talk about the trust recession (which is are next episode)

Instead of promising success, they’re promising stability.
Instead of selling aspiration, they’re selling certainty.

But the emotional levers are the same. Fear. Scarcity. Identity.

That “territory” is you — your fear, your uncertainty, your exhaustion.
And they’re already exploiting it.

Is It the Collapse of the Griftoverse (and Why that’s Not a Good Thing)

You’d think a collapse of the grifter economy would be something to celebrate. Finally! Fewer scammers!

Carney warns that when optimism fades, grifters don’t get more honest — they get more dangerous. “People who are most active in the griftoverse need to turn toward more aggressive tactics in order to continue to find unconquered territory to exploit and profit off of.”

When the easy money dries up, grifters don’t go legit — they escalate.

They go from lying to cheating to stealing.

Carney calls it “the progression toward criminality.” “Liars turn into cheaters, who eventually become thieves.”

Case in point: OG bro marketer Tai Lopez (the subject of our latest Patreon episode) was just indicted by the SEC for running a $112 million Ponzi scheme.

You can already spot it in the online business space:

Programs that vanish after you pay.
Courses that never deliver what was promised.
Refunds are quietly ignored.
Testimonials faked with AI-generated faces.

What used to be manipulation is now morphing into outright fraud.

Carney points out that this isn’t hypothetical — it’s already happening. “Peak grift means now the grifters—they’re going to be criminals.”

How to Protect Yourself as the Web Celebs Get More Aggressive

So what can you do when you can’t trust the marketing—and the grifters are getting desperate?

You protect yourself the same way you’d protect your data, your health, or your money: with informed skepticism.

Slow down your buying decisions. Desperation marketing feeds on urgency. If it’s real, it can wait.
Ask: “Who benefits if I believe this?” If the answer is always the seller, that’s a clue.
Look for proof, not performance. Real experts show evidence. Grifters show emotion.
Don’t mistake vulnerability for honesty. Crying on camera isn’t a character reference.

As Carney reminds us, when truth itself is being eroded, “the mere appearance of corruption is all it takes for anyone to be skeptical.”

The ethical experts aren’t fighting that skepticism. They’re earning their way through it.